Chart structure: 9 Backtests
We backtested 9 chart structure strategies across crypto, US stocks. 1 beat the benchmark before correction; best +7.3 pts/yr.
Every result below is the strategy's annualized return minus an equal-weight benchmark, rebalanced daily, on the same assets and days. Strategies are charged real trading costs; the benchmark pays none. Data stops at the discovery cutoff. See the full family index, the full method and every result, or download the raw registry (JSON).
1 of 9 strategies finished ahead of the benchmark on the raw number, and 0 had an unadjusted p-value under 0.05. After one correction across all 647 tests in the registry, 0 passed, so no result here is a confirmed edge. Scored 2026-10-03, using data up to 2025-03-15. Method: see the evidence page.
How to read these results
"Ahead" means a higher return than the benchmark in this historical test, and "behind" means a lower one. Neither is a confirmed edge. A strategy is only counted as working if it survives a correction for how many strategies were tried, because testing hundreds of ideas will throw up some lucky winners by chance. Chart structure is grouped by the signal it trades on, not by the asset it was tested on, and every strategy here saw only data up to the same cutoff date, so none could see data another could not.
Results
- Does a three-line-break chart trend rule work on crypto? (crypto): ahead of the benchmark by 7.3 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: three line break chart non repainting crypto strategy.
- Does reclaiming the volume-profile point of control work on stocks? (US stocks): behind the benchmark by 9.0 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: stock volume profile point of control reclaim strategy.
- Does the bearish bump-and-run reversal pattern work on stocks? (US stocks): behind the benchmark by 18.3 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: bearish bump and run reversal daily stock pattern.
- Does breaking yesterday's R1 pivot work on crypto? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 38.8 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: classic pivot point R1 breakout crypto trading strategy.
- Does breaking a descending trendline work on crypto? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 49.1 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: confirmed pivot descending trendline breakout crypto strategy.
- Do psychological round-number breakouts work on crypto? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 57.5 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: Bitcoin round number psychological resistance breakout strategy.
- Do confirmed Williams fractal breakouts work on crypto? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 82.5 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: metatrader5.com.
- Do non-repainting Renko trends work on crypto? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 93.6 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: tradingview.com.
- Does a confirmed ZigZag reversal work on crypto? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 107.8 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: non repainting ZigZag directional change crypto strategy.