Managed futures trend: 10 Backtests
We backtested 10 managed futures trend strategies across crypto, ETFs, US stocks. 0 beat buy-and-hold before correction; best −1.5 pts/yr.
Every result below is the strategy's annualized return minus buy-and-hold on the same assets and days, charged real trading costs and scored only on data up to the discovery cutoff. See the full family index, the full method and every result, or download the raw registry (JSON).
0 of these 10 strategies were significant at p < 0.05 before any correction for multiple testing, and 0 of 10 beat buy-and-hold on the raw excess-return number across crypto, ETFs, US stocks. Across the whole registry we ran 260 tests and applied one Benjamini-Hochberg correction; only 0 of those survived it, which is why a single significant p-value inside one family isn't treated as a working edge here — the correction is explained in full on the evidence page. This family was last re-scored on 2026-09-18, using only data up to the 2025-03-15 discovery cutoff — the same freeze point every family in the registry is held to, so none of them can see data the others couldn't. Managed futures trend is tested across 3 asset classes (crypto, ETFs, US stocks); a strategy only joins this family because of the signal it trades on, not the asset it's tested against.
- Risk-parity core + trend overlay filter (ETFs): −1.5 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: AQR 'Trend-Following Overlays' research notes; Dalio All Weather concept.
- Time-series momentum on commodity ETF basket (GLD, SLV, DBC, USO) (ETFs): −1.8 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Miffre & Rallo 2007 JBFA; broad CTA commodity trend literature.
- Time-series momentum on commodity ETF basket (GLD, SLV, DBC, USO) (wide US stocks) (US stocks): −2.2 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Miffre & Rallo 2007 JBFA; broad CTA commodity trend literature.
- Absolute (time-series) momentum filter on single asset (12-1 month) (ETFs): −2.9 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Jegadeesh & Titman 1993 JF; Antonacci 2014.
- Time-series momentum (Moskowitz/Ooi/Pedersen 12-month) (ETFs): −3.7 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Moskowitz, Ooi, Pedersen (2012) JFE.
- VAA canary defensive rotation (ETFs): −4.3 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Keller & Keuning 2017 (Vigilant Asset Allocation).
- Time-series momentum (Moskowitz/Ooi/Pedersen 12-month) (wide US stocks) (US stocks): −4.8 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Moskowitz, Ooi, Pedersen (2012) JFE.
- Price channel breakout with ATR trailing stop (managed-futures style) (ETFs): −8.4 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Public CTA methodology descriptions (Man AHL, Winton whitepapers).
- Donchian channel breakout (20/10, classic Turtle) (crypto): −19.5 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: Curtis Faith 'Way of the Turtle' 2007.
- 24h momentum filtered by rising open interest (crypto): −129.6 pts/yr, behind buy-and-hold, p=1.000. Source: OI-confirmed momentum, crypto derivatives-desk heuristic (2022-2024 practitioner writeups).
Related families: Calendar, Trading books, Other.