Volatility-gated sentiment extremes: 1 Backtest
Data last updated
A rule that buys extreme crypto fear only when volatility is in a set range.
0 of 1 strategy finished ahead of the benchmark on the raw number, and 0 had an unadjusted p-value under 0.05. None cleared the correction for trying 1,774 tests in total (a q-value below 0.10), so no result here is a confirmed edge. Scored 2026-10-31, using data up to 2025-03-15.
Strategies here tested on crypto. See the full family index, the full method and every result, or download the raw registry (JSON).
Results
| Rule | Market | Vs benchmark | Sample | p-value | Corrected q | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto Fear & Greed extreme-value contrarian, vol-regime gated receipt Source: alternative.me Fear & Greed index; retail contrarian trading folklore | crypto | −52.2 pts/yr | 15 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
- Crypto Fear & Greed extreme-value contrarian, vol-regime gated
crypto · −52.2 pts/yr · 15 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- alternative.me Fear & Greed index; retail contrarian trading folklore
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
How to read these results
"Vs benchmark" is the strategy's annualized return minus an equal-weight benchmark, rebalanced daily, on the same assets and days. Strategies are charged trading costs; the benchmark pays none. Ahead is not a confirmed edge: the p-value is the unadjusted chance of a gap this large by luck, and the corrected q allows for how many strategies were tried, because testing hundreds of ideas throws up lucky winners. Every strategy saw only data up to the same cutoff date. The receipt is the frozen result file for that rule.
"Sample" is trades for rules that enter and exit a position, and rebalances for portfolio rules. A rebalance is a scheduled date on which a portfolio rule re-ranks and held at least one position. It is the sample size for portfolio rules. A holdings change is a rebalance where what the portfolio held, or its weights, differed from the previous one. Only these cost money to trade. The two are different counts and are never swapped. Definitions.