Random-entry control
A random-entry control runs the same exits and costs as a rule but enters at random times. It shows how much of a result came from the entry signal, as opposed to the exit, the market or luck.
How Random-entry control is calculated
Keep the rule's number of trades, holding period, exits and costs. Replace the entry dates with random ones, many times over (for example 1,000). The rule's result is then placed within the spread of the random results. A rule that sits in the middle of that spread has not shown that its entries add anything.
How it is read
It answers a narrower question than a benchmark: does this entry rule do better than random entries with everything else equal?
Common mistakes
- Using too few random draws.
- Letting the control use different costs or exits.
- Matching the control only on average and not on the market regime.
What Tickfloor tested
Tickfloor's research desk has backtested 678 strategies, net of modelled trading costs. After correcting for the 761 tests run, 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
- How lucky is our best result? (study)
- ICT Asia session liquidity sweep, hourly crypto version (claim test)
Lessons that cover it
Related concepts
General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.