Fear & Greed Timing: does it work?

Beyond the plain buy-fear, sell-greed rule, traders use the crypto Fear & Greed Index as a timing layer: only run momentum when sentiment is greedy, or add an override after extreme fear.

The rule we tested. Three ways to use the index as a timing input, each compared against buy-and-hold of the same coins: momentum switched on or off by the reading, a four-week momentum rule with an extreme-fear override, and simply holding while the reading is neutral or above. The contrarian version is included for reference.

Some versions finished ahead of buy-and-hold before correction: crypto pairs +39.5 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.050, q=1.000); crypto pairs +40.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.068, q=1.000); crypto pairs +0.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.483, q=1.000); crypto pair −59.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

Stress tests on the discovery data

Same data, harder conditions. Excess is CAGR minus buy-and-hold CAGR.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 517 strategies against buy-and-hold, and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 598 tests), 0 survived. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does Fear & Greed timing work?

Some versions finished ahead of buy-and-hold before correction: crypto pairs +39.5 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.050, q=1.000); crypto pairs +40.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.068, q=1.000); crypto pairs +0.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.483, q=1.000); crypto pair −59.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Three ways to use the index as a timing input, each compared against buy-and-hold of the same coins: momentum switched on or off by the reading, a four-week momentum rule with an extreme-fear override, and simply holding while the reading is neutral or above. The contrarian version is included for reference.

Is this the same as the Fear & Greed contrarian page?

No. The contrarian rule (buy extreme fear, sell extreme greed) has its own page, linked below. This one covers using the index as a filter or timing layer on other rules.

Did it hold up in stress tests and on later data?

Two-week momentum only in greed, BTC in fear showed +32.1 pts/yr with costs doubled; Crypto 4-week momentum plus a 90-day extreme-fear override showed +35.6 pts/yr with costs doubled. None of this is an edge: Tickfloor's correction for multiple testing left 0 survivors out of 598 tests.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Momentum, Sentiment extremes, Pairs and stat arb family pages, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: VIX Term Structure Timing, Golden Cross / Death Cross, RSI(2) Mean Reversion.

See a full worked example, free, no account. Or start lesson 1 of the course, also free.