Golden Cross / Death Cross: does it work?

The golden cross (50-day average crossing above the 200-day) and death cross (crossing below) get treated as a reliable way to time stocks, often under the plainer name "moving average crossover."

The rule we tested. The 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA to go long, and below it to go flat, the classic dual-moving-average timing rule (Faber 2007), coded exactly as published.

No. ETF −1.4 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 401 strategies against buy-and-hold, and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 444 tests), 0 survived. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does the golden cross (or death cross) actually work?

No. ETF −1.4 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

The 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA to go long, and below it to go flat, the classic dual-moving-average timing rule (Faber 2007), coded exactly as published.

Is this the same as a "moving average crossover" strategy?

Yes. Golden cross and death cross are just the bullish and bearish crossovers of the same 50-day/200-day pair sometimes sold separately as a plain moving-average crossover strategy.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Trend following family page, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: RSI(2) Mean Reversion, MACD Crossover, Bollinger Band Bounce.

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