Moving Average Crossover: does it work?

Moving average crossovers and averages stacked in order (fast above slow) are the default trend rule in beginner trading content, sold as a way to ride trends and avoid losses.

The rule we tested. Three moving-average rules: a triple EMA ribbon alignment on crypto, a volume-weighted moving average cross on crypto, and a 50/100/200-day SMA alignment filter on gold, each coded exactly as described in its source.

Not reliably. crypto pairs −29.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000); crypto pairs +23.2 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=0.244, BH-adjusted q=1.000); ETF −2.3 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 517 strategies against an equal-weight benchmark rebalanced daily that pays no costs (the strategies pay theirs), and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 598 tests), 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Do moving average crossovers work?

Not reliably. crypto pairs −29.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000); crypto pairs +23.2 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=0.244, BH-adjusted q=1.000); ETF −2.3 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Three moving-average rules: a triple EMA ribbon alignment on crypto, a volume-weighted moving average cross on crypto, and a 50/100/200-day SMA alignment filter on gold, each coded exactly as described in its source.

What about the golden cross and the 9/21 EMA cross?

Each has its own page, linked below: the 50/200-day golden and death cross on SPY, and the 9/21 EMA cross.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Social media chart patterns, Momentum, Trend following family pages, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: Ichimoku Cloud, Golden Cross / Death Cross, RSI(2) Mean Reversion.

See a full worked example, free, no account. Or start lesson 1 of the course, also free.