Do trading strategies work on crypto?
None passed the corrected test in these backtests. Of 146 strategies tested on crypto pairs, 28 finished ahead of the equal-weight benchmark on the point estimate, 3 of those with an unadjusted p-value under 0.05, and none met the corrected Benjamini-Hochberg bar (q below 0.10). The median strategy returned −49.2 pts/yr against the benchmark. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
The universe is crypto pairs only, with data up to 2025-03-15. Most strategies are published or popular rules coded from a source description (a few are Tickfloor research-desk hypotheses), charged modelled trading costs and scored against an equal-weight benchmark of the same assets.
The numbers
- 146 strategies tested on crypto pairs.
- 28 finished ahead of the benchmark on the point estimate, 3 with an unadjusted p-value under 0.05.
- None met the corrected bar (q below 0.10).
- The median strategy returned −49.2 pts/yr against the benchmark.
The closest results
These five came out furthest ahead of the benchmark. Being furthest ahead among 146 tries is what luck alone produces, which is why the corrected q matters more than the headline figure.
- Crypto 4-week momentum plus a 90-day extreme-fear override (Sentiment extremes): +40.6 pts/yr vs the benchmark, unadjusted p=0.068, corrected q=1.000.
- Two-week momentum only in greed, BTC in fear (Momentum): +39.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark, unadjusted p=0.050, corrected q=1.000.
- Crypto low BTC-beta alts plus BTC, monthly (Equity factors): +38.9 pts/yr vs the benchmark, unadjusted p=0.008, corrected q=0.454.
- Crypto rank-weighted low BTC beta, monthly (Equity factors): +31.8 pts/yr vs the benchmark, unadjusted p=0.002, corrected q=0.169.
- Crypto 3-week momentum with a 50% hold buffer (Momentum): +31.6 pts/yr vs the benchmark, unadjusted p=0.061, corrected q=1.000.
Tickfloor's research desk has backtested 517 strategies, most against an equal-weight benchmark of the same assets rebalanced daily that pays no costs (the strategies pay theirs). After correcting for the 598 tests run (Benjamini-Hochberg), 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.
Strategy families tested on crypto pairs
- Trend following (31 on crypto pairs)
- Momentum (20 on crypto pairs)
- Mean reversion (19 on crypto pairs)
- Volatility (15 on crypto pairs)
- Sentiment extremes (11 on crypto pairs)
- Funding carry (6 on crypto pairs)
- Other tested patterns (6 on crypto pairs)
- Social media chart patterns (6 on crypto pairs)
Do trading strategies work on crypto?
None passed the corrected test in these backtests. Of 146 strategies tested on crypto pairs, 28 finished ahead of the equal-weight benchmark on the point estimate, 3 of those with an unadjusted p-value under 0.05, and none met the corrected Benjamini-Hochberg bar (q below 0.10). The median strategy returned −49.2 pts/yr against the benchmark. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
What is the benchmark?
An equal-weight long position in the same assets, rebalanced daily, before any benchmark costs. The strategies pay trading costs and the benchmark does not, which makes the test harder to pass, not easier.
Why correct the p-values?
When 598 tests are run, some will look significant by luck. The Benjamini-Hochberg correction accounts for how many were tried before calling any result real.
Is this advice on what to trade?
No. It reports what happened to published and popular rules in the past. General information only, not personal advice.