Low-Beta Crypto: does it work?

Beta is how far a coin tends to move when Bitcoin moves. The idea, borrowed from stock research, is that holding the calmer coins pays better per unit of risk than holding everything.

The rule we tested. Each month, measure every coin's sensitivity to Bitcoin over a trailing window, then hold Bitcoin plus the lowest-sensitivity coins (equal weight, or rank-weighted in the second version), compared against equal-weight buy-and-hold of the same coins.

Some versions finished ahead of buy-and-hold before correction: crypto pairs +38.9 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.008, q=0.452); crypto pairs +31.8 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.002, q=0.168); crypto pairs −38.4 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

Stress tests on the discovery data

Same data, harder conditions. Excess is CAGR minus buy-and-hold CAGR.

The holdout exam

Data after 2025-03-15 had been kept back. Each rule below was run on it once, with the rule and the pass bar written down first.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 517 strategies against buy-and-hold, and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 598 tests), 0 survived. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does low-beta crypto beat buy-and-hold?

Some versions finished ahead of buy-and-hold before correction: crypto pairs +38.9 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.008, q=0.452); crypto pairs +31.8 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=0.002, q=0.168); crypto pairs −38.4 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Each month, measure every coin's sensitivity to Bitcoin over a trailing window, then hold Bitcoin plus the lowest-sensitivity coins (equal weight, or rank-weighted in the second version), compared against equal-weight buy-and-hold of the same coins.

Did it hold up in stress tests and on later data?

Crypto low BTC-beta alts plus BTC, monthly showed +37.9 pts/yr with costs doubled; Crypto rank-weighted low BTC beta, monthly showed +31.0 pts/yr with costs doubled. Holdout exam: Crypto low BTC-beta alts plus BTC, monthly: +11.5 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold on data after 2025-03-15 (p=0.32), not confirmed, underpowered. None of this is an edge: Tickfloor's correction for multiple testing left 0 survivors out of 598 tests.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Equity factors family page, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: Crypto Trend Following, Fear & Greed Timing, VIX Term Structure Timing.

See a full worked example, free, no account. Or start lesson 1 of the course, also free.