Turnaround Tuesday: does it work?
None of these versions passed. Sample: 569 completed trades over 2005-01-04 to 2025-03-14 (20.2 years).
Turnaround Tuesday is a Stock Trader's Almanac idea: after a Monday sell-off, stocks tend to bounce on Tuesday.
The rule we tested. Buy the Monday close after a down Monday and sell the Tuesday close, on QQQ and DIA, flat otherwise.
- Turnaround Tuesday: buy Monday close after a down Monday, sell Tuesday close, QQQ+DIA 1d (2 ETFs (QQQ, DIA)), 2005-01-04 to 2025-03-14, costs 0.05% per side: −9.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark across 569 completed trades, unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000: did not beat the benchmark.
See a full worked example of one of these reads (free, no account)
Receipt: parameters, data, window and result file
- Run id
- t1010-turnaround-tue-e, run 2026-10-10
- Frozen parameters
- timeframe 1d; weekday=1
- Data source
- vendor not recorded in the result file; data fingerprint sha256 8caaeb5b2342ba6c...
- Instruments and coverage
- 2 assets: QQQ, DIA
- Date window
- 2005-01-04 to 2025-03-14 (discovery cutoff 2025-03-15)
- Sample
- 569 completed trades over 2005-01-04 to 2025-03-14 (20.2 years)
- Cost rule
- 0.05% per side; charged on every change in position; benchmark pays none; no funding/borrow on shorts
- Fill rule
- not recorded
- Benchmark
- equal-weight long of the same assets, rebalanced daily across assets trading that day (no costs)
- Rule source (public)
- not published yet
- Run record (public)
- research/hunt2/ledger.jsonl, line with id t1010-turnaround-tue-e
- Full result file
- not published yet
None of these versions passed. ETFs −9.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared our Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once counted alongside every other rule we tested. That covers the versions, costs and benchmark described here, not every version of the rule. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
Failed: only the tested version above. Not tested: Other index funds; Fridays or other weekdays; a threshold for how far Monday must fall. A result for the tested version says nothing about these.
This is one line in a bigger check. The research desk has run 694 strategies, most against an equal-weight benchmark of the same assets rebalanced daily that pays no costs (the strategies pay theirs). After correcting for how many we tried (Benjamini-Hochberg, 777 tests), 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works, and it says nothing about versions we did not test. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.
Short answers: the verdict and the rule, as questions
Does Turnaround Tuesday work?
None of these versions passed. ETFs −9.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared our Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once counted alongside every other rule we tested. That covers the versions, costs and benchmark described here, not every version of the rule. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
What exact rule did Tickfloor test?
Buy the Monday close after a down Monday and sell the Tuesday close, on QQQ and DIA, flat otherwise.
Is this financial advice?
No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.
See the full numbers on the Tests 1010 family page, or the full method and every result.