Holding clock: 3 Backtests
We backtested 3 holding clock strategies across crypto, US stocks. 0 beat the benchmark before correction; best −7.2 pts/yr.
Every result below is the strategy's annualized return minus an equal-weight benchmark, rebalanced daily, on the same assets and days. Strategies are charged real trading costs; the benchmark pays none. Data stops at the discovery cutoff. See the full family index, the full method and every result, or download the raw registry (JSON).
0 of 3 strategies finished ahead of the benchmark on the raw number, and 0 had an unadjusted p-value under 0.05. After one correction across all 688 tests in the registry, 0 passed, so no result here is a confirmed edge. Scored 2026-10-03, using data up to 2025-03-15. Method: see the evidence page.
How to read these results
"Ahead" means a higher return than the benchmark in this historical test, and "behind" means a lower one. Neither is a confirmed edge. A strategy is only counted as working if it survives a correction for how many strategies were tried, because testing hundreds of ideas will throw up some lucky winners by chance. Holding clock is grouped by the signal it trades on, not by the asset it was tested on, and every strategy here saw only data up to the same cutoff date, so none could see data another could not.
Results
- Does a deadline to recover an early loss improve stock exits? (US stocks): behind the benchmark by 7.2 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: trade stop probation recover entry price deadline.
- Does a five-day progress check improve stock exits? (US stocks): behind the benchmark by 11.7 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: time stop trade not working five day checkpoint.
- Does selling a stalled crypto winner work? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 28.8 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: time since maximum favorable excursion stalled winner exit.