Positioning: 10 Backtests
Data last updated
0 of 10 strategies finished ahead of the benchmark on the raw number, and 0 had an unadjusted p-value under 0.05. None cleared the correction for trying 1,774 tests in total (a q-value below 0.10), so no result here is a confirmed edge. Scored 2026-10-31, using data up to 2025-03-15.
Strategies here tested on crypto. See the full family index, the full method and every result, or download the raw registry (JSON).
Results
| Rule | Market | Vs benchmark | Sample | p-value | Corrected q | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greed on the index but unlevered coin: long the disagreement receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −57.0 pts/yr | 169 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Re-leveraging after fear: funding turns positive within 10 days of fear receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −60.4 pts/yr | 325 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Fear on the index but levered longs on the coin: short the disagreement receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −61.5 pts/yr | 372 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Sustained 7-day funding extreme: fade crowded side in both directions receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −75.7 pts/yr | 383 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Trapped longs: weekly drop while longs still pay positive funding, short continuation receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −77.1 pts/yr | 800 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| New shorts opening into a 3-day drop: short continuation receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −86.2 pts/yr | 49 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Funding acceleration exhaustion: fade a rally when funding jumps within a week receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −88.4 pts/yr | 519 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Crowding count: funding, open interest, sentiment all uncrowded receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −88.5 pts/yr | 279 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Open-interest stretch (60-day z>1.5) with price rolling over: short receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −91.9 pts/yr | 120 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
| Hourly fade of an upmove carried by high funding receipt Source: c1031/cryptoderiv | crypto | −105.1 pts/yr | 803 trades | 1.000 | 1.000 | On-site receipt |
- Greed on the index but unlevered coin: long the disagreement
crypto · −57.0 pts/yr · 169 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Re-leveraging after fear: funding turns positive within 10 days of fear
crypto · −60.4 pts/yr · 325 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Fear on the index but levered longs on the coin: short the disagreement
crypto · −61.5 pts/yr · 372 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Sustained 7-day funding extreme: fade crowded side in both directions
crypto · −75.7 pts/yr · 383 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Trapped longs: weekly drop while longs still pay positive funding, short continuation
crypto · −77.1 pts/yr · 800 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- New shorts opening into a 3-day drop: short continuation
crypto · −86.2 pts/yr · 49 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Funding acceleration exhaustion: fade a rally when funding jumps within a week
crypto · −88.4 pts/yr · 519 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Crowding count: funding, open interest, sentiment all uncrowded
crypto · −88.5 pts/yr · 279 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Open-interest stretch (60-day z>1.5) with price rolling over: short
crypto · −91.9 pts/yr · 120 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
- Hourly fade of an upmove carried by high funding
crypto · −105.1 pts/yr · 803 trades · corrected q 1.000
Source, p-value and result file
- Source
- c1031/cryptoderiv
- p-value
- 1.000
- Corrected q
- 1.000
- Receipt
- On-site receipt
How to read these results
"Vs benchmark" is the strategy's annualized return minus an equal-weight benchmark, rebalanced daily, on the same assets and days. Strategies are charged trading costs; the benchmark pays none. Ahead is not a confirmed edge: the p-value is the unadjusted chance of a gap this large by luck, and the corrected q allows for how many strategies were tried, because testing hundreds of ideas throws up lucky winners. Every strategy saw only data up to the same cutoff date. The receipt is the frozen result file for that rule.
"Sample" is trades for rules that enter and exit a position, and rebalances for portfolio rules. A rebalance is a scheduled date on which a portfolio rule re-ranks and held at least one position. It is the sample size for portfolio rules. A holdings change is a rebalance where what the portfolio held, or its weights, differed from the previous one. Only these cost money to trade. The two are different counts and are never swapped. Definitions.