Sell in May: does it work?

"Sell in May and go away", holding stocks November through April and going to cash May through October, is one of the oldest sayings in investing.

The rule we tested. Long only November through April, flat May through October, the classic Halloween-effect calendar switch, coded exactly as the saying describes it.

No. ETF −6.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 401 strategies against buy-and-hold, and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 444 tests), 0 survived. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does "sell in May and go away" still work?

No. ETF −6.6 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Long only November through April, flat May through October, the classic Halloween-effect calendar switch, coded exactly as the saying describes it.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Day and month seasonality family page, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: 12-1 Month Momentum, Dual Momentum (GEM), Fear & Greed Index.

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