Fear & Greed Index: does it work?

Buying when the crypto Fear & Greed Index hits extreme fear and selling at extreme greed is one of the most repeated contrarian rules in crypto trading content.

The rule we tested. Going long when the Fear & Greed Index reaches an extreme-fear reading and exiting at an extreme-greed reading, the plain contrarian version of the published rule.

No. crypto pair −39.9 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000); crypto pair −43.2 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 401 strategies against buy-and-hold, and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 444 tests), 0 survived. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does trading the Fear & Greed Index work?

No. crypto pair −39.9 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000); crypto pair −43.2 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Going long when the Fear & Greed Index reaches an extreme-fear reading and exiting at an extreme-greed reading, the plain contrarian version of the published rule.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Sentiment extremes family page, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: Crypto Weekend Effect, Buy the Dip, The January Effect.

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