Dual Momentum (GEM): does it work?

Antonacci's Global Equities Momentum (GEM) rotation, switch between US and international stocks or bonds based on relative and absolute momentum, is one of the most repeated "set and forget" systems taught online.

The rule we tested. Monthly comparison of trailing momentum across a stock/bond/cash proxy set, rotating into whichever leg is strongest and to bonds when absolute momentum turns negative, Antonacci's published GEM rule.

No. ETFs −2.7 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 401 strategies against buy-and-hold, and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 444 tests), 0 survived. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does Gary Antonacci's dual momentum (GEM) strategy work?

No. ETFs −2.7 pts/yr vs buy-and-hold (p=1.000, q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Monthly comparison of trailing momentum across a stock/bond/cash proxy set, rotating into whichever leg is strongest and to bonds when absolute momentum turns negative, Antonacci's published GEM rule.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Equity factors family page, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: Fear & Greed Index, Crypto Weekend Effect, Buy the Dip.

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