Average result per trade, and Kelly sizing
Work out expectancy, and see why Kelly sizing is fragile and not a safe default.
Module 13 of 26, How much to risk, and surviving losing streaks. Lesson 2 of 6, about 18 minutes.
The takeaway
Use expectancy to check a rule. Treat Kelly as a ceiling that depends on its assumptions.
This page is a public summary. The full lesson has the worked examples, an interactive exercise and a short quiz, and sits in the course. Lessons 1 and 2 of Module 1 are free and the rest need a pass.
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