Seasonality: calendar effects that shrink once people know
Describe calendar effects, count how few independent observations they rest on, and see why many fade after publication.
Module 6 of 26, Market mood, the day’s average price, and fair tests. Lesson 6 of 6, about 16 minutes.
The takeaway
Calendar effects rest on few observations, shrink out of sample, and fade after publication. A rule that needs zero costs to make money is not a rule; it is history.
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