Heikin-Ashi: does it work?
None of these versions passed. Sample: Heikin-Ashi colour flip, daily, 18 crypto pairs: 1,249 completed trades over 2017-08-18 to 2025-03-14 (7.6 years); Heikin-Ashi colour flip, daily, 40 US stocks: 5,351 completed trades over 2016-09-15 to 2025-03-14 (8.5 years).
Heikin-Ashi candles average price bars to make trends look cleaner. The most-taught rule is to trade the flip from red candles to green and back.
The rule we tested. A colour-flip trend system on Heikin-Ashi candles, on daily bars. Two versions: 18 crypto pairs and 40 US stocks.
- Heikin-Ashi colour flip, daily, 18 crypto pairs (18 crypto pairs (BTCUSDT, BNBUSDT, XRPUSDT, ADAUSDT, …)), 2017-08-18 to 2025-03-14, costs 0.10% to 0.17% per side: −47.4 pts/yr vs the benchmark across 1,249 completed trades, unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000: did not beat the benchmark.
- Heikin-Ashi colour flip, daily, 40 US stocks (40 US stocks (AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, …)), 2016-09-15 to 2025-03-14, costs 0.05% per side: −18.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark across 5,351 completed trades, unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000: did not beat the benchmark.
See a full worked example of one of these reads (free, no account)
Receipt: parameters, data, window and result file
Heikin-Ashi colour flip, daily, 18 crypto pairs
- Run id
- social-ta-heikin-ashi-trend, run 2026-10-06
- Frozen parameters
- timeframe 1d; not recorded
- Data source
- vendor not recorded in the result file; data fingerprint sha256 e7098c5c15a8401c...
- Instruments and coverage
- 18 assets: BTCUSDT, BNBUSDT, XRPUSDT, ADAUSDT, DOGEUSDT, LTCUSDT, LINKUSDT, TRXUSDT, BCHUSDT, ATOMUSDT, ETCUSDT, DASHUSDT and 6 more (full list in the result file)
- Date window
- 2017-08-18 to 2025-03-14 (discovery cutoff 2025-03-15)
- Sample
- 1,249 completed trades over 2017-08-18 to 2025-03-14 (7.6 years)
- Cost rule
- 0.10% to 0.17% per side; charged on every change in position/weight; benchmark pays none; no funding/borrow on shorts
- Fill rule
- not recorded
- Benchmark
- equal-weight long of the same assets, rebalanced daily across assets trading that day (no costs)
- Rule source (public)
- research/hunt2/strategies/social-ta-heikin-ashi-trend.mjs
- Run record (public)
- research/hunt2/ledger.jsonl, line with id social-ta-heikin-ashi-trend
- Full result file
- not published yet
Heikin-Ashi colour flip, daily, 40 US stocks
- Run id
- wide-social-ta-heikin-ashi-trend, run 2026-09-18
- Frozen parameters
- timeframe 1d; not recorded
- Data source
- vendor not recorded in the result file; data fingerprint sha256 fb40d60216b63ab2...
- Instruments and coverage
- 40 assets: AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA, JPM, V, UNH, XOM, JNJ, COST and 28 more (full list in the result file)
- Date window
- 2016-09-15 to 2025-03-14 (discovery cutoff 2025-03-15)
- Sample
- 5,351 completed trades over 2016-09-15 to 2025-03-14 (8.5 years)
- Cost rule
- 0.05% per side; charged on every change in position/weight; benchmark pays none; no funding/borrow on shorts
- Fill rule
- not recorded
- Benchmark
- equal-weight long of the same assets, rebalanced daily across assets trading that day (no costs)
- Rule source (public)
- research/hunt2/strategies/wide-social-ta-heikin-ashi-trend.mjs
- Run record (public)
- research/hunt2/ledger.jsonl, line with id wide-social-ta-heikin-ashi-trend
- Full result file
- not published yet
None of these versions passed. crypto pairs −47.4 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000); US stocks −18.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared our Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once counted alongside every other rule we tested. That covers the versions, costs and benchmark described here, not every version of the rule. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
Failed: only the tested versions above. Not tested: Other Heikin-Ashi rules such as no-wick candles; intraday bars; stop placement variants. A result for the tested version says nothing about these.
This is one line in a bigger check. The research desk has run 694 strategies, most against an equal-weight benchmark of the same assets rebalanced daily that pays no costs (the strategies pay theirs). After correcting for how many we tried (Benjamini-Hochberg, 777 tests), 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works, and it says nothing about versions we did not test. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.
Short answers: the verdict and the rule, as questions
Does the Heikin-Ashi strategy work?
None of these versions passed. crypto pairs −47.4 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000); US stocks −18.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared our Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once counted alongside every other rule we tested. That covers the versions, costs and benchmark described here, not every version of the rule. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
What exact rule did Tickfloor test?
A colour-flip trend system on Heikin-Ashi candles, on daily bars. Two versions: 18 crypto pairs and 40 US stocks.
Is this financial advice?
No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.
See the full numbers on the Social media chart patterns family page, or the full method and every result.