Trendline Breakout: does it work?
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Did Trendline Breakout beat the benchmark in Tickfloor's test?
No. We tested Trendline Breakout on 8 crypto pairs, 2017 to 2025. After costs, it returned 49.1 percentage points a year less than the benchmark. None held up once we allowed for the many other rules we tested. This is a historical test of the rule as described, not a prediction or advice.
None of these versions passed. Sample: 3,909 completed trades over 2017-08-17 to 2025-03-14 (7.6 years).
Draw a line through two falling highs and wait for price to close above it: trendline breakouts are one of the most-taught entries in chart-reading content.
The rule we tested. Trendlines are drawn by rule, not by eye: two confirmed swing highs (2 bars either side) between 6 and 48 hours apart, the second lower than the first. Buy the first hourly close more than 0.25 average true ranges above the line, with a 3-ATR stop and a 96-hour time limit. Long only, 8 crypto pairs.
- Does breaking a descending trendline work on crypto? (8 crypto pairs (BTCUSDT, BNBUSDT, XRPUSDT, ADAUSDT, …)), 2017-08-17 to 2025-03-14, costs 0.10% to 0.12% per side: −49.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark across 3,909 completed trades, unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000: did not beat the benchmark.
See a full worked example of one of these reads (free, no account)
Receipt: parameters, data, window and result file
- Run id
- h3-hourly-descending-trendline, run 2026-10-06
- Frozen parameters
- timeframe 1h; pivotWingBars=2, minPivotSeparationHours=6, maxPivotSeparationHours=48, maxSecondPivotAgeHours=72, atrBars=24, breakoutAtrBuffer=0.25, stopAtr=3, maxHoldHours=96, cooldownHours=24, warmupBars=96
- Data source
- vendor not recorded in the result file; data fingerprint sha256 d482077d31ca2631...
- Instruments and coverage
- 8 assets: BTCUSDT, BNBUSDT, XRPUSDT, ADAUSDT, DOGEUSDT, LTCUSDT, LINKUSDT, TRXUSDT
- Date window
- 2017-08-17 to 2025-03-14 (discovery cutoff 2025-03-15)
- Sample
- 3,909 completed trades over 2017-08-17 to 2025-03-14 (7.6 years)
- Cost rule
- 0.10% to 0.12% per side; charged on every change in position/weight; benchmark pays none; no funding/borrow on shorts
- Fill rule
- not recorded
- Benchmark
- equal-weight long of the same assets, rebalanced daily across assets trading that day (no costs)
- Rule source (public)
- not published yet
- Run record (public)
- research/hunt2/ledger.jsonl, line with id h3-hourly-descending-trendline
- Full result file
- not published yet
No. None of the versions we tested passed. After costs: crypto pairs −49.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark. None held up once we allowed for how many other rules we tested. That covers the versions, costs and benchmark described here, not every version of the rule. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
Tested a rule of your own? Check whether your backtest is just luck. It is free and needs no account.
Failed: only the tested version above. Not tested: Rising trendlines as support; hand-drawn lines; stocks and ETFs; other buffers or swing definitions. A result for the tested version says nothing about these.
This is one line in a bigger check. The research desk has run 1083 strategies, most against an equal-weight benchmark of the same assets rebalanced daily that pays no costs (the strategies pay theirs). After correcting for how many we tried (Benjamini-Hochberg, 1425 tests), 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works, and it says nothing about versions we did not test. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.
Short answers: the verdict and the rule, as questions
Does breaking a trendline work?
No. None of the versions we tested passed. After costs: crypto pairs −49.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark. None held up once we allowed for how many other rules we tested. That covers the versions, costs and benchmark described here, not every version of the rule. These are historical diagnostics, not validation under Testing Standard v2: the backtest harness predates that standard and has not been re-run to meet it.
What exact rule did Tickfloor test?
Trendlines are drawn by rule, not by eye: two confirmed swing highs (2 bars either side) between 6 and 48 hours apart, the second lower than the first. Buy the first hourly close more than 0.25 average true ranges above the line, with a 3-ATR stop and a 96-hour time limit. Long only, 8 crypto pairs.
Is this financial advice?
No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.
See the full numbers on the Chart structure family page, or the full method and every result.