Event clock: 4 Backtests
We backtested 4 event clock strategies across crypto, US stocks. 0 beat the benchmark before correction; best −16.6 pts/yr.
Every result below is the strategy's annualized return minus an equal-weight benchmark, rebalanced daily, on the same assets and days. Strategies are charged real trading costs; the benchmark pays none. Data stops at the discovery cutoff. See the full family index, the full method and every result, or download the raw registry (JSON).
0 of 4 strategies finished ahead of the benchmark on the raw number, and 0 had an unadjusted p-value under 0.05. After one correction across all 688 tests in the registry, 0 passed, so no result here is a confirmed edge. Scored 2026-10-03, using data up to 2025-03-15. Method: see the evidence page.
How to read these results
"Ahead" means a higher return than the benchmark in this historical test, and "behind" means a lower one. Neither is a confirmed edge. A strategy is only counted as working if it survives a correction for how many strategies were tried, because testing hundreds of ideas will throw up some lucky winners by chance. Event clock is grouped by the signal it trades on, not by the asset it was tested on, and every strategy here saw only data up to the same cutoff date, so none could see data another could not.
Results
- Does a budget for all losing steps improve stock exits? (US stocks): behind the benchmark by 16.6 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: cumulative adverse return loss budget trade exit.
- Does a movement budget improve crypto exits? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 51.2 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: cumulative absolute return event time trade exit.
- Does counting direction changes improve crypto exits? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 66.5 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: direction change count event clock trade exits.
- Does a volume clock improve hourly crypto exits? (crypto): behind the benchmark by 78.0 percentage points a year. Not statistically significant. Source: retail trading content: volume clock holding period neutral entry crypto.