RSI Trading Strategy: does it work?

RSI is a widely used oscillator on a price chart, and content about it promises everything from trend confirmation to reversal calls. Two of the most repeated RSI rules were coded and tested here.

The rule we tested. Two RSI rules: a 14-period RSI 50-midline trend filter combined with a moving average, and hourly bullish RSI divergence (price makes a lower low while RSI makes a higher low), each coded exactly as described in its source.

No. crypto pairs −18.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000); crypto pairs −98.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

This is one line in a wider check: Tickfloor's research desk has run 517 strategies against an equal-weight benchmark rebalanced daily that pays no costs (the strategies pay theirs), and after correcting for how many were tested (Benjamini-Hochberg, 598 tests), 0 passed. That does not prove no strategy works. A single win-rate claim like this one is exactly the kind of result that check exists to catch before anyone trades on it.

General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.

Does an RSI trading strategy work?

No. crypto pairs −18.5 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000); crypto pairs −98.1 pts/yr vs the benchmark (unadjusted p=1.000, BH-adjusted q=1.000). None cleared Tickfloor's Benjamini-Hochberg q<0.10 bar once weighed against every other rule tested alongside it.

What exact rule did Tickfloor test?

Two RSI rules: a 14-period RSI 50-midline trend filter combined with a moving average, and hourly bullish RSI divergence (price makes a lower low while RSI makes a higher low), each coded exactly as described in its source.

What about the classic RSI 30/70 overbought and oversold rule?

Connors' RSI(2) pullback rule, the best-known oversold-buying version, has its own page, linked below.

Is this financial advice?

No. This measures a publicly claimed strategy rule, not a recommendation. General information only, not personal advice.

See the full numbers on the Social media chart patterns, Mean reversion family pages, or the full method and every result.

Other rules we've tested: Moving Average Crossover, Ichimoku Cloud, Golden Cross / Death Cross.

See a full worked example, free, no account. Or start lesson 1 of the course, also free.