The 5 most-talked-about trading techniques of autumn 2026, tested
We tested the five trading techniques getting the most attention on Reddit and YouTube this autumn, 16 versions in all, after costs, with the rules written down before running. None passed.
We picked them by counting: posts in r/Daytrading, r/Trading, r/algotrading, r/Forex and r/options from 1 September to 5 October 2026, plus YouTube views on recent videos. ICT and smart money ideas led with 240 posts, then breakouts, VWAP, moving averages and opening range breakouts. On crypto, the 200-day line, the golden cross and Uptober came round again.
Each technique got a best-faith version and two or three common variants. They ran on Tickfloor's research harness, the same one behind every published result, and every run joined the same correction for multiple tests: 719 tests in all, 0 passed.
The five, at a glance
| Technique | Verdict | Best-faith rule a year vs basket, after costs | Random copies beaten |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening range breakout (ORB) | Did not pass. Lost money before costs on hourly crypto; 0 of 52 futures and stock versions passed earlier. | -58.3% vs 84.7% | 1 of 200 |
| ICT Asia session liquidity sweep | Did not pass. Worse than random entry times; 0 of 1,057 sweep rules passed in the earlier study. | -48.1% vs 84.7% | 0 of 200 |
| VWAP plus 9 EMA | Did not pass. Trading costs on hundreds of flips a year swamped both versions. | -99.1% vs 84.7% | 0 of 200 |
| 9/21 EMA crossover | Did not pass. Costs ate the plain cross; the filtered version beat random copies but trailed the basket. | -51.3% vs 84.7% | 39 of 200 |
| Bitcoin 200-day line, golden cross and Uptober | Did not pass. Smaller drops, much smaller returns; Uptober beat most random copies but not enough. | 14.2% vs 62.8% | 49 of 200 |
- Opening range breakout (ORB)
- Verdict
- Did not pass. Lost money before costs on hourly crypto; 0 of 52 futures and stock versions passed earlier.
- Best-faith rule a year vs basket, after costs
- -58.3% vs 84.7%
- Random copies beaten
- 1 of 200
- ICT Asia session liquidity sweep
- Verdict
- Did not pass. Worse than random entry times; 0 of 1,057 sweep rules passed in the earlier study.
- Best-faith rule a year vs basket, after costs
- -48.1% vs 84.7%
- Random copies beaten
- 0 of 200
- VWAP plus 9 EMA
- Verdict
- Did not pass. Trading costs on hundreds of flips a year swamped both versions.
- Best-faith rule a year vs basket, after costs
- -99.1% vs 84.7%
- Random copies beaten
- 0 of 200
- 9/21 EMA crossover
- Verdict
- Did not pass. Costs ate the plain cross; the filtered version beat random copies but trailed the basket.
- Best-faith rule a year vs basket, after costs
- -51.3% vs 84.7%
- Random copies beaten
- 39 of 200
- Bitcoin 200-day line, golden cross and Uptober
- Verdict
- Did not pass. Smaller drops, much smaller returns; Uptober beat most random copies but not enough.
- Best-faith rule a year vs basket, after costs
- 14.2% vs 62.8%
- Random copies beaten
- 49 of 200
How we tested
The pass bar is the same one every strategy on this site faces. After correcting for every test we have ever run, the rule must beat an equal-weight basket of the same assets. It must also beat at least 95% of 200 copies of itself with the trades moved to random dates, make money after costs, and do it in both halves of the window, with at least 30 trades.
The intraday techniques (ORB, ICT sweeps, VWAP, the 9/21 cross) ran on hourly crypto, the only intraday data in the harness. For ORB and the ICT sweep we also report our earlier futures and stock studies. Each article says exactly what was tested and where it differs from the version people post.
What the five have in common
The intraday rules lost money or trailed badly once costs were in, and most were losing before costs too. The slower crypto rules cut the worst drops and gave up far more return. The one near miss was Uptober, which beat most of its random copies on a sample of seven or eight Octobers.
None of this means no one can make money with these ideas. It means these mechanical versions did not show an edge in years of data, and the short winning streaks posted online are not evidence that they do.
Read each test
- Does the opening range breakout work? We tested the version everyone is posting
- Does the ICT Asia session liquidity sweep work? We backtested it
- Does the VWAP and 9 EMA strategy work? We backtested it
- Does the 9/21 EMA crossover work? We tested it on thousands of trades
- Bitcoin's 200-day line, the golden cross and Uptober: we tested all three
- See a full worked example (free, no account)
- Start lesson 1 of the course (free)
- Every popular rule we tested
General information only. It doesn't consider your objectives, finances or needs. Tickfloor holds no financial services licence and never places trades.
Short answers (FAQ)
Which trading strategy works best in 2026?
None of the five trending techniques we tested passed. Across all 719 tests on this site, 0 have passed.
How did you pick the five?
By counting Reddit posts in five trading subreddits from 1 September to 5 October 2026 and YouTube views on recent videos, then keeping the ones our harness could test fairly.
Can I test these myself?
Each article gives a daily version you can run in the Backtest Lab with a free account.
Is this advice?
No. It reports what happened to a set of rules in the past. General information only.